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Will There be a Recession in the Election year 2020?

Posted by Kathryn Vallee on Friday, October 18th, 2019 at 7:25pm.

"Will the recession begin in the election year of 2020?"

The Wall Street recently conducted a survey with over 36 economists by asking the question "When will the next recession begin?"

The chart shows the results of that survey the was asked of the economists from four major surveys done by four major entities, the Pulsenomics survey, the Duke University survey, the National Association of Business Economics survey, and the Wall Street Journal survey.

According to Morgan Housel, "It might be over before we realized it began.” But, I’m a little nervous about people panicking over it since there’s so much talk to it, especially coming into a presidential election year. In short, I don’t think the recession is going to be anything like 2008 fro many reasons.

Several of the economists predict that the recession is going to occur before the end of next year, and 28 percent believe it’s going to occur sometime in 2021, and much of that was early 2021.

This chart illustrates the 2008 recession and often referred to as  "The Housing Market Meltdown and "The Mortgage Market Meltdown". Take a look at the home price change during the last five recessions. 

Looking back at the home values since 1980 to 2008, home values actually went up, and the only time they didn’t, they went down by less than two percent. So, home prices are not dropping dramatically. Question: " Are you waiting for prices to come tumbling down before you buy?"

You are going to wait a long time for that to happen.

As a matter of fact, take a look at the chart that shows the Projected Home Price Percentage Appreciation Going Forward by six major entities, the Home Price Expectations Survey, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Zelman and Associates, Freddie Mac, the National Association of Realtors, and Fannie Mae.

According to this chart provided by Corelogic; the economists are predicting that we are going to see home price appreciation.

According to CoreLogic, prices went up 3.6 percent. If you refer to this chart by the state breakdown home prices are projected to increase up to 4.5% in the next 12 months.  There is a lack of inventory in many states and with interest rates being so low. Buyers are out there. So now, that’s that supply and demand situation again.

Resources:

Home Price Index By Corelogic

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